With pre-training camp rumblings buzzing at NFL facilities across the country, we’re in the earliest stages of “getting our mind right for football” once again. Earlier, I had written that an improved AFC West could be a big help to Denver in terms of battle-testing what should be a championship-contending team. So, with at least the canvas in place for teams to start creating roster pictures, how has the rest of the AFC West done in retooling for 2013.
Kansas City Chiefs:
The Chiefs will be better. This is an easy guarantee as they were so profoundly terrible last season. The addition of Alex Smith alone makes this a competent team. That’s not necessarily a statement about Smith’s greatness, but rather his ability to play relatively well compared to last year’s KC quarterback crop. Kansas City still has most of its bright spots intact (namely its defense, running game, and Dwayne Bowe). Bringing in Andy Reid as coach also can’t hurt. Does this all spell a recipe to go from worst to first? Probably not. From a pure talent perspective, the Chiefs still trail Denver and potentially San Diego, but talent doesn’t guarantee wins. Arrowhead Stadium should once again become an extremely difficult road environment, and if the Chiefs can grab a solid road win or two, they’ll have the confidence and competence to build a winning record.
Oakland Raiders:
So remember a few seconds ago when I talked about the Chiefs seemingly solving their quarterback problem? Yeah, not so much with Oakland. Right now the venerable Matt Flynn tops the QB depth chart in Oakland. Let’s be clear: Flynn is running with the 1′s because of a single game performance with a high octane turn-key offense. His ability to hit a slew of Packers’ receivers, all of whom were terrific at getting comfortably open, for 60 minutes makes him a starter? I imagine Terrelle Pryor will take the reins to either start the season, or shortly after the start of the season. Pryor is likely the best option Oakland has this season. His mobility could improve a lackluster receiving corps. Oakland needs a passing game. Even if Pryor gets all read-option, it will still be crucial to air it out enough to keep Darren McFadden in the lineup. The explosive back is dangerous, but has been hard to count on for 16 games during his career. Oakland likely provides the Broncos with two more relatively formulaic wins this season.
San Diego Chargers:
I’m kind of rooting for Mike McCoy–if only because his success will further show coordinators can become good head coaches so long as they’re not involved with the Belichick Empire. That said, I’m not heading into the summer with great expectations for the Chargers. Two of San Diego’s gritty bright spots (Louis Vasquez and Shaun Phillips) are now Broncos. While the Chargers did make a splash with the drafting of Manti Te’o and the desperation signing of Dwight Freeney on defense, these seem like question marks. Freeney likely isn’t an every down player, and the last time we saw Te’o against something resembling an NFL offensive line, well, it didn’t go well. It’s been two years since we didn’t have to wonder if there was something wrong with Philip Rivers. The hope is that the off-field dismissals right a team that has all the trappings to be elite. I still feel the Chiefs have a better chance at beating Denver than the Chargers do.
So…all in all…my hunch is the AFC West gets a bit better. Really, I expect San Diego and Kansas City to engineer non-losing seasons. Whether that’s 8-8 or a surprising 10-6, ultimately I don’t see either putting much of a scare into Denver if the Broncos remain healthy. I’d be shocked if the Raiders pull off more than six wins. All told, the division should provide a fair challenge for Denver, but if the team is really looking to prove its mettle, at least it has the NFC East and road games at New England and Houston.
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